Official Journal Health Science of Prince of Songkla University

  • Home
  • Search
  • Current
  • Archives
  • Announcements
  • Guide for Authors
  • Publication Ethics
  • Editorial Board
  • Submit
  • About
  • Contact
  • Online-first Articles
  • EVENTS
  • Review Process
Home > Vol 43, No 4 (2025) > Sanguanchua

External Validation of the PeRSonal Gestational Diabetes Model for Predicting Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Women with Gestational Diabetes: A Retrospective Cohort Study in a Tertiary Hospital in Thailand

Sunittha Sanguanchua, Sorawat Sangkaew, Khodeeyoh Kasoh

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to validate the PeRSonal Gestational Diabetes (GDM) model with two-step glucose tolerance diagnostic criteria.
Material and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on participants having delivered with GDM diagnosis in a tertiary hospital; from October 1, 2020, until September 30, 2022. The main outcome was a composite of maternal and perinatal adverse pregnancy complications. Model validation evaluated the predictors and calculated risk by using a two-step glucose tolerance test in the PeRSonal model formula. Model performance was analyzed for discrimination, calibration, and overall performance.
Results: This study analyzed 685 from the initial 764 participants with GDM, with 218 (31.8%) developing adverse pregnancy outcomes. The most frequent adverse outcomes were hypertensive disorders in pregnancy 132 (19.3%) and neonatal hypoglycemia 91 (13.3%). This validation achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 0.74), calibration-in-the-large of 0.17, a calibration slope of 1.34, and a Brier score of 0.20, respectively. The cut-off clinical risk probability of 27.5% can predict adverse outcomes with a sensitivity of 67.3%, specificity of 63.8%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 46.7%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 80.5%.
Conclusion: The PeRSonal model maintains its predictive effectiveness in two-step glucose tolerance diagnostic criteria.

 Keywords

adverse pregnancy outcome; gestational diabetes; prediction model

 Full Text:

PDF

References

Wang H, Li N, Chivese T, Werfalli M, Sun H, Yuen L, et al. IDF diabetes atlas: estimation of global and regional gestational diabetes mellitus prevalence for 2021 by International Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Group’s Criteria. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2022;183:109050.

Saeedi P, Petersohn I, Salpea P, Malanda B, Karuranga S, Unwin N, et al. Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2019;157:107843.

Ogurtsova K, da Rocha Fernandes JD, Huang Y, Linnenkamp U, Guariguata L, Cho NH, et al. IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2017;128:40-50.

ElSayed NA, Aleppo G, Aroda VR, Bannuru RR, Brown FM, Bruemmer D, et al. Classification and Diagnosis of Diabetes: Standards of Care in Diabetes-2023. Diabetes Care 2023;46(Suppl 1):S19-40.

Moon JH, Jang HC. Gestational diabetes mellitus: diagnostic approaches and maternal-offspring complications. Diabetes Metab J 2022;46:3-14.

Bidhendi Yarandi R, Vaismoradi M, Panahi MH, Gåre Kymre I, Behboudi-Gandevani S. Mild gestational diabetes, and adverse pregnancy outcome: a systemic review and meta-analysis. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021;8:699412.

Catalano PM, McIntyre HD, Cruickshank JK, McCance DR, Dyer AR, Metzger BE, et al. The hyperglycemia and adverse pregnancy outcome study: associations of GDM and obesity with pregnancy outcomes. Diabetes Care 2012;35:780-6.

Scifres C, Feghali M, Althouse AD, Caritis S, Catov J. Adverse outcomes and potential targets for intervention in gestational diabetes and obesity. Obstet Gynecol 2015;126:316-25.

Murray SR, Reynolds RM. Short- and long-term outcomes of gestational diabetes and its treatment on fetal development. Prenat Diagn 2020;40:1085-91.

Cooray SD, Wijeyaratne LA, Soldatos G, Allotey J, Boyle JA, Teede HJ. The unrealized potential for predicting pregnancy complications in women with gestational diabetes: a systematic review and critical appraisal. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2020;17:3048.

Lappharat S, Liabsuetrakul T. Accuracy of screening tests for gestational diabetes mellitus in Southeast Asia: a systematic review of diagnostic test accuracy studies. Medicine (Baltimore) 2020;99:e23161. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000023161.

Guo XY, Shu J, Fu XH, Chen XP, Zhang L, Ji MX, et al. Improving the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions for gestational diabetes prevention: a meta-analysis and metaregression. BJOG 2019;126:311-20.

Wang Y, Ge Z, Chen L, Hu J, Zhou W, Shen S, et al. Risk prediction model of gestational diabetes mellitus in a Chinese population based on a risk scoring system. Diabetes Ther 2021;12:1721-34.

Sweeting AN, Wong J, Appelblom H, Ross GP, Kouru H, Williams PF, et al. A novel early pregnancy risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus. Fetal Diagn Ther 2019;45:76- 84.

Hughes RC, Moore MP, Gullam JE, Mohamed K, Rowan J. An early pregnancy HbA1c ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) is optimal for detecting diabetes and identifies women at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Diabetes Care 2014;37:2953-9.

Wei Y, He A, Tang C, Liu H, Li L, Yang X, et al. Risk prediction models of gestational diabetes mellitus before 16 gestational weeks. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2022;22:889.

Lappharat S, Rothmanee P, Jandee K, Suksai M, Liabsuetrakul T. A model for predicting gestational diabetes mellitus in early pregnancy: a prospective study in Thailand. Obstet Gynecol Sci 2022;65:156-65.

Hinkle SN, Tsai MY, Rawal S, Albert PS, Zhang C. HbA1c measured in the first trimester of pregnancy and the association with gestational diabetes. Sci Rep 2018;8:12249.

Cooray SD, Boyle JA, Soldatos G, Allotey J, Wang H, Fernandez-Felix BM, et al. Development, validation and clinical utility of a risk prediction model for adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with gestational diabetes: The PeRSonal GDM model. Clin Med 2022;52:101637.

Collins GS, Ogundimu EO, Altman DG. Sample size considerations for the external validation of a multivariable prognostic model: a resampling study. Stat Med 2016;35:214- 26.

Kim M, Park J, Kim SH, Kim YM, Yee C, Choi SJ, et al. The trends and risk factors to predict adverse outcomes in gestational diabetes mellitus: a 10-year experience from 2006 to 2015 in a single tertiary center. Obstet Gynecol Sci 2018;61:309-18.

Tenenbaum-Gavish K, Sharabi-Nov A, Binyamin D, Møller HJ, Danon D, Rothman L, et al. First trimester biomarkers for prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus. Placenta 2020;101: 80-9.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31584/jhsmr.20241111

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

SUBMIT A PAPER

JHSMR accepts online submission through

AHR-iCON 2024

Journal Metrics


2020
Acceptance rate: 52%
2021
Acceptance rate: 27.8%
2022 (March)
Acceptance rate: 15.6%
2023 (June)
Acceptance rate: 23.6%
2024 (June)
Acceptance rate: 19%


Submission to final decision
74 days

Acceptance to publication
40 days

0.6
2024CiteScore
 
 
31st percentile
Powered by Scopus



 

 

SCImago Journal & Country Rank

About The Authors

Sunittha Sanguanchua
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Hatyai Hospital, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110,
Thailand

Sorawat Sangkaew
Department of Social Medicine, Hatyai Hospital, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110,
Thailand

Khodeeyoh Kasoh
Department of Social Medicine, Hatyai Hospital, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110,
Thailand

Article Tools
Abstract
Print this article
Indexing metadata
How to cite item
Email this article (Login required)
Email the author (Login required)

Supported by

 

JHSMR now Indexed in



Scopus logo.svg






Image result for crossref





PSUMJ Homepage

Keywords COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Thailand anxiety children computed tomography depression diabetes diabetes mellitus elderly hypertension knowledge mental health mortality prevalence quality of life reliability risk factors stroke treatment validity
Journal Content

Browse
  • By Issue
  • By Author
  • By Title
Font Size
Make font size smaller Make font size default Make font size larger

Open Journal Systems